The Couch Sitter Predictions for the 2018 AFL Finals Series

Will Richmond go Back-to-Back in 2018

Source: www.foxsports.com.au

Now that the Minor round of the AFL Season is over for 2018, it is time to look at the teams that have qualified for the AFL Finals and rate their chances. This season has had some surprises both in terms of teams that have made the finals and those that have missed out. Fortunately, I have had the opportunity to watch every AFL team live this year and thus can now formulate a reasonable opinion on how the top 8 sides will perform in September.

Richmond – First on 72 points – the reigning premiers have been the best side that I have seen this year. They have not always played well, but have managed to grind out wins when necessary. There has been a relatively even performance by all players with Riewoldt, Martin, Caddy, and Lambert showing the way throughout the season. It will be difficult to beat them in September and almost impossible for an interstate side. My prediction: Richmond go back-to-back for the first time in VFL/AFL history since 1973-74.

West Coast – Second on 64 points – West Coast have been a little surprising this year mainly due to the amount of experience they lost at the beginning of the year plus injuries to key players during the year. Add in the move to a new home at Optus Stadium and this year could have been bad… really bad. To their credit West Coast have been impressive at home and grabbed a few wins away to show their credentials. A top-two finish is vital as their form in MCG is still in question. My prediction: West Coast are runners up with the assistance of home finals.

Collingwood – Third on 60 points (120.4%) – another surprise packet this year and have also had many injuries to key players throughout the year. Coach Nathan Buckley has Collingwood playing an honest brand of football that is hard running and full of belief. If they make the Grand Final and play an interstate side they will win it with the help of their supporters. A Preliminary Final against Richmond will make an interesting contest as they could really push the Tigers. My prediction: Collingwood finish third losing to Richmond in the Preliminary Final.

Hawthorn: - Fourth on 60 points (120.1%) – Hawthorn have outperformed expectations this year by finishing in the Top 8 during what is predicted to be a rebuilding year for them. Key wins against Geelong (twice), Melbourne and Adelaide have been a catalyst for their season. Teams that move the ball quickly will trouble Hawthorn which may be the logic behind their wins over Geelong. Hard to see Hawthorn making the Grand Final at this stage. My Prediction: Hawthorn lose in the Preliminary final.

Melbourne: - Fifth on 56 points (131.4%). - Melbourne have performed on par this season so far in my opinion. Although questions remain on their consistency, somehow they managed to make the AFL Finals for the first time since 2006. Results range from almost brilliant (win over Adelaide by 91 points) to dismal (losses to Hawthorn by 67 points and Richmond by 46 points). How they perform in September is still anyone’s guess and I think emotion gets them into the second week. My prediction: Melbourne suffer a semi final loss.

Sydney: - Sixth on 56 points (109.5%) – Sydney are an enigma, their performances have been inconsistent and they have lost games that they were expected to win throughout the season (e.g. Port Power, North Melbourne, Geelong, and Adelaide at home) but winning matches they were not expected to triumph in (e.g. West Coast, Geelong, Melbourne, and Hawthorn away). This makes it difficult to get a read on them. My prediction: Sydney exit in the second week of the finals.

Greater Western Sydney: - Seventh on 54 points - GWS have had a difficult year with injuries and suspensions to key players. Yet, they have managed to keep themselves in the finals race and are slowly building for a campaign that goes deep into September. A team that relies on quick ball movement and athleticism, GWS will be difficult to contain in the better weather of September. If they can keep everyone fit, they have the potential to go all the way. However, with the impact of injuries this year, it is difficult to see them playing in their first Grand Final. My prediction: GWS lose a close one in the "Battle for the Bridge" and finish seventh.

Geelong: Eighth on 52 points – Geelong made the finals with easy wins at home against their last two opponents being Fremantle and Gold Coast. As a result they play Melbourne at the MCG in the first week of the finals. The game becomes a fifty-fifty contest purely because Melbourne are in the finals for the first time since 2006. If Geelong can keep up with Melbourne's speed they win, but I think emotion gets Melbourne over the line. My Prediction: Geelong will not progress past the first week.

Although Richmond are predicted to win the flag, it all comes down to how the team performs on the day. In the last two grand finals the team listed as favourites have lost with bad performances, so Richmond cannot take anything for granted if they want Back to Back glory.