The Couch Sitter Predictions for the 2018 AFL Finals Series

Will Richmond go Back-to-Back in 2018

Source: www.foxsports.com.au

Now that the Minor round of the AFL Season is over for 2018, it is time to look at the teams that have qualified for the AFL Finals and rate their chances. This season has had some surprises both in terms of teams that have made the finals and those that have missed out. Fortunately, I have had the opportunity to watch every AFL team live this year and thus can now formulate a reasonable opinion on how the top 8 sides will perform in September.

Richmond – First on 72 points – the reigning premiers have been the best side that I have seen this year. They have not always played well, but have managed to grind out wins when necessary. There has been a relatively even performance by all players with Riewoldt, Martin, Caddy, and Lambert showing the way throughout the season. It will be difficult to beat them in September and almost impossible for an interstate side. My prediction: Richmond go back-to-back for the first time in VFL/AFL history since 1973-74.

West Coast – Second on 64 points – West Coast have been a little surprising this year mainly due to the amount of experience they lost at the beginning of the year plus injuries to key players during the year. Add in the move to a new home at Optus Stadium and this year could have been bad… really bad. To their credit West Coast have been impressive at home and grabbed a few wins away to show their credentials. A top-two finish is vital as their form in MCG is still in question. My prediction: West Coast are runners up with the assistance of home finals.

Collingwood – Third on 60 points (120.4%) – another surprise packet this year and have also had many injuries to key players throughout the year. Coach Nathan Buckley has Collingwood playing an honest brand of football that is hard running and full of belief. If they make the Grand Final and play an interstate side they will win it with the help of their supporters. A Preliminary Final against Richmond will make an interesting contest as they could really push the Tigers. My prediction: Collingwood finish third losing to Richmond in the Preliminary Final.

Hawthorn: - Fourth on 60 points (120.1%) – Hawthorn have outperformed expectations this year by finishing in the Top 8 during what is predicted to be a rebuilding year for them. Key wins against Geelong (twice), Melbourne and Adelaide have been a catalyst for their season. Teams that move the ball quickly will trouble Hawthorn which may be the logic behind their wins over Geelong. Hard to see Hawthorn making the Grand Final at this stage. My Prediction: Hawthorn lose in the Preliminary final.

Melbourne: - Fifth on 56 points (131.4%). - Melbourne have performed on par this season so far in my opinion. Although questions remain on their consistency, somehow they managed to make the AFL Finals for the first time since 2006. Results range from almost brilliant (win over Adelaide by 91 points) to dismal (losses to Hawthorn by 67 points and Richmond by 46 points). How they perform in September is still anyone’s guess and I think emotion gets them into the second week. My prediction: Melbourne suffer a semi final loss.

Sydney: - Sixth on 56 points (109.5%) – Sydney are an enigma, their performances have been inconsistent and they have lost games that they were expected to win throughout the season (e.g. Port Power, North Melbourne, Geelong, and Adelaide at home) but winning matches they were not expected to triumph in (e.g. West Coast, Geelong, Melbourne, and Hawthorn away). This makes it difficult to get a read on them. My prediction: Sydney exit in the second week of the finals.

Greater Western Sydney: - Seventh on 54 points - GWS have had a difficult year with injuries and suspensions to key players. Yet, they have managed to keep themselves in the finals race and are slowly building for a campaign that goes deep into September. A team that relies on quick ball movement and athleticism, GWS will be difficult to contain in the better weather of September. If they can keep everyone fit, they have the potential to go all the way. However, with the impact of injuries this year, it is difficult to see them playing in their first Grand Final. My prediction: GWS lose a close one in the "Battle for the Bridge" and finish seventh.

Geelong: Eighth on 52 points – Geelong made the finals with easy wins at home against their last two opponents being Fremantle and Gold Coast. As a result they play Melbourne at the MCG in the first week of the finals. The game becomes a fifty-fifty contest purely because Melbourne are in the finals for the first time since 2006. If Geelong can keep up with Melbourne's speed they win, but I think emotion gets Melbourne over the line. My Prediction: Geelong will not progress past the first week.

Although Richmond are predicted to win the flag, it all comes down to how the team performs on the day. In the last two grand finals the team listed as favourites have lost with bad performances, so Richmond cannot take anything for granted if they want Back to Back glory.

The Rambling Couch Sitter's 2018 AFL Supporter Awards

Are things looking up Melbourne?

Source: www.qbd.com.au



Now that I have been living in Melbourne for 10 years, I thought it prudent to provide an analysis from a personal perspective on supporters from some of the AFL clubs. I wrote a similar article some years ago and things have changed since then. For instance, the "Feral Supporters" award no longer goes to Richmond but returns to its rightful club in Port Adelaide.


The "Little Engine That Could" award - Melbourne: Melbourne has improved from the "Sick and Sorry" award from a few years ago to this new award. Their supporters currently "think they can" make the Top 4 and "think they can" win the flag. Both the team and their supporters have some work to do to achieve both.

The “Feral Supporters” award – Port Adelaide: I bet you were all thinking Collingwood, but history dictates otherwise and it's something that will never change. They scream, swear and bully like a big club’s supporters would and worst of all think the whole world is against them. Furthermore, they got points for trying to make a half decent song into an anthem. Damn, I used to like Never Tear Us Apart from INXS too. Collingwood was a close second.

The “Juvenile Delinquent” award – St Kilda: An award that has not changed teams since the last time this article was written. The Saints supporters will happily “boo” opposition shots at goal and remind you of your clubs off-field indiscretions. The memory often fails the Saints supporters and their jibes often come back to haunt them. They really should remember the line that “Children should be seen and not heard” especially given off-field events of recent years.

The “Scarcity” award – North Melbourne: Another award that has not changed since the last time I wrote this article. The Kangaroos have a reasonably modest supporter base to begin with and when your side is not going well some supporters will drop off. But it is rare for North Melbourne to get more than 20,000 people when hosting an interstate club. I could pick the Gold Coast and Greater Western Sydney but they are relatively new clubs so that would be unfair.

The “Sick and Sorry” award – Carlton: The Blues have progressed (or regressed) from the "Hanging Shit on Your Own Team" award to win this award. Carlton always seem to be rebuilding and its supporters are basically resigned to see their club range from “Woeful to Terrible". After years of this merry-go-round the strain is starting to show. Carlton supporters are often resigned to defeat before the game has started.

The “We are the Competition” award – Collingwood: No change to the winner of this award. I'm not sure how many times I have heard the line from a Collingwood supporter “If it wasn’t for us, there would be no AFL” or the like. What rot, it speaks of arrogance and most of all there is not enough recent success to qualify the statement. Unfortunately it will only get worse if they win another flag in the next year or two.

The “Most Relieved Supporters” award – Richmond: After 37 years of not winning a premiership Richmond finally broke through with a win over Adelaide in the 2017 Grand Final. While we're still hearing about it as the Tigers go for back to back flags, the wait alone justifies the nomination.

So there you have it, congratulations to the winners and if your team did not win an award, there is always next year J

Is it time for a Red Card in the AFL?

Andrew Gaff on the bench after the Brayshaw incident

Source: www.sportingnews.com

Yeah, it’s been a while since I have been here. Have thought about a few contributions to the blog but never got around to them. However, given the Andrew Gaff incident on the weekend in the Western Derby, along with other similar offences over time, perhaps there is need for discussion about how to even up the contest in these situations.

Let’s face it, the team with the injured player has one less player to use for substitutions (which are capped at 90 per game) and therefore those players are fatigued quicker which obviously provides an advantage to the team whose player caused the injury. The earlier in the game that this happens could lead to a greater advantage for the offending team.

So, how could the AFL rectify the potential advantage created when a player is injured during the match. That is, does the idea of a red card system have merit in the AFL?

Now, I’m all for Aussie Rules Football that is played tough and hard, but it needs to be done in a fair manner. Aussie Rules is a very physical game in nature, so there is no need to be unfair or against the rules when it comes to physicality on the field.

Unlike sports such as Association Football or Rugby Union, AFL is a high scoring game that is played over a much larger field and for a longer period. Even though the playing time is specified at 80 mins, the clock is stopped quite regularly in Aussie Rules for any score, boundary throw-ins, free-kicks etc. A quarter in Aussie Rules usually lasts around 30 mins so players can be active up to 120 mins during a match. Based on this it becomes unfeasible to have one team with a player short on the field for any length of time as the match would end up being too one-sided.

I have been giving this scenario some thought over the last year or so and perhaps the answer lies in a combination of two ideas. The idea that the player responsible for the incident is no longer allowed to participate in the match is valid. However, we don’t want to make the contest too one-sided by having one less player on the field for one team.

Therefore, we could take the middle ground so that the offending player takes no further part in the game and the offending team keeps 18 players on the field during the game.

This effectively gives the offending team the same resources that the team with the injured player now has for the duration of the game. However, this idea does have a limitation in that in a Grand Final a team could select an average player to deliberately cause injury to a star player early in the match. This would remove both players from the contest but the offending team benefits as the star player for the opposition no longer has an impact.

Another idea and my preferred one, could be to remove the player through substitution and then remove all remaining interchanges for the offending team. Imagine if a team has their No.1 ruckman, midfielder and forward on the bench when the offence occurred and they could not return to the field. The team would have to make one substitution to even up the players on the field and would need to make a choice between the ruckman, midfielder or forward.

Again, this idea could be “gamed” somewhat, but it provides an option for the AFL to consider in removing the potential advantage for a team during the game. Of course, the offending player is likely to be suspended after the match as they would most likely face the tribunal and this affects the club in subsequent weeks.

However, the aim also is to provide an in-game deterrent so that an incident such as Gaff’s on the weekend does not occur. Let's see how the AFL tackles this situation in the coming weeks.