Who will win the Cricket World Cup?

Source: www.aussiedigest.com

Well, it is less than one week until the start of the cricket world cup in Australia and New Zealand. The tournament officially starts on Valentine’s Day at the MCG and finishes at the same venue on March 29. To be honest, I am really looking forward to the next six weeks of cricket and expect that many hours will be devoted to watching the great game.

The format is fairly simple this time around, with two pools of seven teams playing six matches in a round robin format. After playing the six matches, the top four teams in each pool progress to quarter finals where it takes a knockout format until the final. The pleasing aspect of this format is that the minnow nations such as Afghanistan, Scotland, and the United Arab Emirates all play six games against quality opposition. This is important for the development of the game and should provide valuable experience for those nations.

The obvious question is which teams are the most likely to win the tournament. Well it is difficult to go past Australia, South Africa and India at this stage. However New Zealand come through as a dark horse given that they play all their group matches in New Zealand, including the one against Australia.

Australia will be aiming for their fifth World Cup trophy and have won the World Cup on every cricket playing continent except their own. The pressure is enormous to win this one given that it is on home soil. The squad is full of match winners such as Warner, Maxwell, Johnson and Smith just to name a few. They are currently the best team on the planet and are in form, as proven by their recent win in the one day series against India and England. Anything less than an appearance in the final will be considered a failure by many pundits. Barring injury and self-implosion, I believe the team will make the final and they should win it. However keeping a lid on expectation within the team will be the key.

South Africa are the perennial chokers in major cricket tournaments and amazingly still have not won a World Cup. Quite simply they are the masters of self-destruction and I expect that both Allan Donald and Lance Klusener still have nightmares about their exit from the 1999 World Cup. In terms of talent, South Africa oozes as much talent as Australia with de Villiers, Amla, Steyn, Vilander and du Plessis. For South Africa everything is in place, it simply comes down to execution and mindset. Basically, this team needs success like I need coffee. They should make the March 29 final at the MCG, but will they win….well that is anyone’s guess.

India, they would only make the quarter finals based on current form. However tournaments such as these also rely on timing and if India finds form at the pointy end of the tournament then they are in with a real shot. The Indian’s have the ability to score runs quickly with players such as Dhoni and Kohli. Their bowling is still a little raw and if they bowl first their batsmen could find themselves chasing some large totals. The advantage India has over most other teams is that they have been in Australia for a couple of months now and hence should be used to Australian conditions. For me I think India can make the semi-finals if they find their form.

My dark horse is New Zealand, who has two things going its way. First, New Zealand get to play all its group matches at home and possibly even a quarter final. This is a huge advantage for New Zealand who really knows how to play to their conditions. Plus their grounds tend to be smaller than the Australian grounds which will bring players such as Brendon McCullum and Ross Taylor into play. Second is their squad, while it does not boast the depth of Australia’s or South Africa’s squads there is enough depth to trouble most sides. Their bowling attack of Trent Boult, Tim Southee and Daniel Vettori is very capable of bowling out most sides. This is complemented by the aggressive style of batting from McCullum and Taylor, the accumulation capabilities of Williamson and the all-round abilities of Corey Anderson. The Kiwis have an opportunity to make the semi-finals and if things go their way then who knows it could lead to their first finals play-off.

Like many others, I suspect that the World Cup Final will be played between Australia and South Africa. However both India and New Zealand will have a fair amount to say in the matter and either country is quite capable of causing an upset in the semi-finals and progress to the final.