To tank or not to tank ? - that is the question facing Fremantle
For those of you not familiar with the Tanking term,
Tanking occurs when a team deliberately loses a match to advance their cause.
In the AFL there is often speculation that a lowly ranked team will “tank”
matches to secure a first round draft pick in the AFL National draft. The incentive
here is secure the services of a highly talented player in order to win more
matches in the future.
What if the tanking scenario could be applied to the AFL
finals race? The teams playing the 2012 AFL finals series are set but the
finishing position of every team in the “Top 8” is not. Based of the Round 23
schedule released by the AFL, Fremantle may have the choice of underperforming
in their match in order to secure a final in Perth against the West Coast. This would
be a game that Fremantle would consider themselves with more than a fair chance
of winning.
The most likely alternative for Fremantle is a trip to
Melbourne to play a final. Given the travel involved and their poor record when
travelling, the logical option for Fremantle is to perform below standard (or
even lose against Melbourne) if this results in a Perth derby.
The final ladder positions will be determined by two
games, Hawthorn vs West Coast and Geelong vs Sydney. The winner of the Hawthorn
vs West Coast will impact the results of at least 3 other games: Geelong vs
Sydney, Essendon vs Collingwood and Fremantle vs Melbourne.
If Hawthorn win, then Collingwood have an incentive to beat
Essendon for a Top 4 spot and with West Coast likely to be in fifth position
Fremantle have the incentive to underperform against Melbourne in order to play
the West Coast in a Perth derby. It should be noted here that Hawthorn have a
big incentive to win as this will secure top spot and a home final.
If West Coast win and secure a Top 4 spot, then Adelaide
and Sydney will be encouraged to win their games against Gold Coast and Geelong
(respectively) to secure Top 2 spots and home games in the first week. Fremantle
would look at the GWS vs North Melbourne and Geelong vs Syndey games to see if
they wanted to play either Collingwood or Geelong the following week.
For Fremantle, the extra incentive (or disincentive)
will arise from the GWS vs North Melbourne match. This game is scheduled to
start on Saturday at 4:40pm and Fremantle will know the final result during
their game against Melbourne. A big win by North Melbourne (which looks likely)
would provide little incentive for Fremantle to play well.
So this weekend it looks like Fremantle will be hoping
that Hawthorn win, followed by a convincing win by North Melbourne, then they
can “tank” their game against Melbourne so they can play against West Coast in
a Perth derby.
It would be reasonable to
assume that the AFL would prefer every that teams played each game on their
merits and to the best of their ability, but in this scenario a finals team can
manipulate results by underperforming.